Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 96,321
2 South Dakota 83,476
3 Iowa 68,078
4 Wisconsin 65,212
5 Nebraska 59,925
6 Utah 55,964
7 Montana 52,796
8 Illinois 52,546
9 Idaho 52,377
10 Wyoming 50,851
11 Kansas 49,713
12 Tennessee 49,440
13 Minnesota 49,037
14 Arkansas 48,442
15 Mississippi 48,344
16 Alabama 47,740
17 Rhode Island 47,739
18 Louisiana 47,573
19 Missouri 46,980
20 Indiana 45,092
21 Oklahoma 44,952
22 Nevada 44,371
23 Florida 43,986
24 Arizona 41,654
25 Georgia 40,962
26 Texas 40,826
27 South Carolina 40,311
28 New Mexico 40,131
29 Alaska 38,450
30 Kentucky 36,655
31 Colorado 35,351
32 New Jersey 35,058
33 Michigan 34,067
34 Delaware 33,078
35 North Carolina 32,386
36 New York 31,196
37 Ohio 31,080
38 Maryland 30,458
39 Massachusetts 30,268
40 Connecticut 29,938
41 California 28,756
42 District of Columbia 28,749
43 Virginia 25,896
44 Puerto Rico 25,617
45 Pennsylvania 25,015
46 West Virginia 22,941
47 Washington 20,398
48 Oregon 15,727
49 New Hampshire 13,268
50 Hawaii 12,292
51 Maine 7,844
52 Vermont 5,952

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,478
2 Wyoming 1,325
3 Minnesota 1,170
4 New Mexico 1,120
5 South Dakota 1,046
6 Montana 961
7 Iowa 937
8 Indiana 921
9 Utah 912
10 Oklahoma 894
11 Kansas 870
12 Wisconsin 830
13 Rhode Island 809
14 Ohio 795
15 Illinois 790
16 Alaska 786
17 Colorado 780
18 Nebraska 734
19 Nevada 711
20 Missouri 670
21 Michigan 654
22 Idaho 607
23 Kentucky 607
24 Tennessee 603
25 Connecticut 492
26 Pennsylvania 491
27 West Virginia 489
28 Delaware 477
29 Arizona 472
30 Arkansas 472
31 New Jersey 458
32 Alabama 387
33 Mississippi 386
34 Maryland 380
35 Massachusetts 371
36 Washington 353
37 Texas 351
38 California 335
39 Florida 330
40 Oregon 328
41 Louisiana 319
42 Georgia 318
43 North Carolina 306
44 New Hampshire 305
45 Virginia 300
46 Puerto Rico 299
47 New York 295
48 South Carolina 284
49 District of Columbia 227
50 Maine 145
51 Vermont 136
52 Hawaii 88

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,888
2 New York 1,737
3 Massachusetts 1,527
4 Connecticut 1,366
5 Louisiana 1,351
6 Mississippi 1,235
7 Rhode Island 1,235
8 North Dakota 1,118
9 Illinois 958
10 District of Columbia 952
11 South Dakota 925
12 Michigan 894
13 Arizona 888
14 Georgia 845
15 Florida 841
16 South Carolina 832
17 Indiana 792
18 Arkansas 790
19 Pennsylvania 775
20 Delaware 772
21 Maryland 735
22 Texas 729
23 Alabama 705
24 Iowa 704
25 New Mexico 668
26 Nevada 659
27 Tennessee 622
28 Missouri 602
29 Minnesota 588
30 Montana 575
31 Wisconsin 545
32 Ohio 515
33 Kansas 499
34 Nebraska 495
35 Colorado 489
36 Idaho 486
37 North Carolina 483
38 California 474
39 Virginia 461
40 Kentucky 426
41 Oklahoma 416
42 New Hampshire 376
43 West Virginia 372
44 Washington 364
45 Wyoming 349
46 Puerto Rico 323
47 Utah 249
48 Oregon 196
49 Hawaii 163
50 Alaska 132
51 Maine 131
52 Vermont 100

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 29
2 Wyoming 14
3 Montana 12
4 North Dakota 12
5 New Mexico 11
6 Illinois 8
7 Arkansas 7
8 Nebraska 7
9 Indiana 6
10 Iowa 6
11 Minnesota 6
12 Kansas 5
13 Michigan 5
14 West Virginia 5
15 Connecticut 4
16 Nevada 4
17 Pennsylvania 4
18 Puerto Rico 4
19 Rhode Island 4
20 Tennessee 4
21 Colorado 3
22 Florida 3
23 Idaho 3
24 Kentucky 3
25 Louisiana 3
26 Mississippi 3
27 Oklahoma 3
28 South Carolina 3
29 Texas 3
30 Wisconsin 3
31 Delaware 2
32 Georgia 2
33 Hawaii 2
34 Maryland 2
35 Massachusetts 2
36 New Jersey 2
37 North Carolina 2
38 Utah 2
39 Arizona 1
40 California 1
41 District of Columbia 1
42 Missouri 1
43 New Hampshire 1
44 New York 1
45 Ohio 1
46 Oregon 1
47 Virginia 1
48 Washington 1
49 Alabama 0
50 Alaska 0
51 Maine 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Norton Kansas 196,419 1 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 191,277 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 183,738 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 183,486 4 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 178,876 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 62,516 486 84
Richland South Carolina 47,614 1054 66
York South Carolina 32,369 1959 37
Orange California 23,106 2478 21
Pierce Washington 18,153 2684 14

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,208 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 4 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 5 99
Richland South Carolina 710 1171 62
Davidson Tennessee 586 1432 54
Orange California 489 1668 46
York South Carolina 470 1722 45
Pierce Washington 327 2151 31

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons